Morgan St.

Conference:	MEAC
Expected RPI:	327.0
Current RPI:	327
Expected SOS:	349
Current SOS:	349
Current Record:	11-19
Expected Record:	11-19
Current Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Conf Record:	9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-13
Current OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC Record:	2-9
Expected OOC RPI:	278
Expected OOC SOS:	276

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-19	327.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Morgan St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Binghamton (320.0)	AE	A	76-59	L	0%
11-13	South Florida (278.0)	Amer	A	53-63	W	100%
11-18	West Virginia (27.0)	B12	A	111-48	L	0%
11-27	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	A	63-69	W	100%
11-29	George Washington (195.0)	A10	A	73-66	L	0%
12-3	Navy (200.0)	Pat	A	66-59	L	0%
12-6	Towson (153.0)	CAA	A	82-78	L	0%
12-9	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	A	80-66	L	0%
12-22	George Mason (201.0)	A10	A	86-79	L	0%
12-27	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	N	100-74	L	0%
12-30	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	A	79-69	L	0%
1-3	Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)	MEAC	H	85-82	W	100%
1-6	Florida A&M (332.0)	MEAC	H	87-68	W	100%
1-8	Savannah St. (197.0)	MEAC	H	89-88	W	100%
1-13	North Carolina A&T (238.0)	MEAC	A	69-67	L	0%
1-15	North Carolina Central (279.0)	MEAC	A	77-63	L	0%
1-20	Coppin St. (343.0)	MEAC	A	80-73	L	0%
1-22	Delaware St. (351.0)	MEAC	H	61-47	W	100%
1-29	South Carolina St. (331.0)	MEAC	H	59-74	L	0%
2-3	Norfolk St. (266.0)	MEAC	A	76-65	L	0%
2-5	Howard (339.0)	MEAC	H	97-61	W	100%
2-10	Savannah St. (197.0)	MEAC	A	97-94	L	0%
2-12	Florida A&M (332.0)	MEAC	A	48-74	W	100%
2-19	Bethune Cookman (288.0)	MEAC	H	95-96	L	0%
2-24	Hampton (237.0)	MEAC	A	57-38	L	0%
2-26	Coppin St. (343.0)	MEAC	H	69-56	W	100%
3-1	Delaware St. (351.0)	MEAC	A	87-80	L	0%
3-6	South Carolina St. (331.0)	MEAC	N	83-80	W	100%
3-7	Bethune Cookman (288.0)	MEAC	N	77-78	W	100%
3-9	North Carolina Central (279.0)	MEAC	N	79-70	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Morgan St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Morgan St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Morgan St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Morgan St.	MEAC	26.19	26.19	41.53	41.53	-4.44	-4.44
North Carolina Central	MEAC	4.12	4.12	48.28	48.28	-0.14	-0.14
Coppin St.	MEAC	4.07	4.07	13.33	13.33	-2.98	-2.98
Florida A&M	MEAC	4.01	4.01	25.81	25.81	-1.94	-1.94
Delaware St.	MEAC	3.98	3.98	3.57	3.57	-3.69	-3.69
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	3.98	3.98	53.57	53.57	0.28	0.28
Savannah St.	MEAC	3.96	3.96	42.86	42.86	-0.57	-0.57
South Carolina St.	MEAC	3.95	3.95	25.00	25.00	-1.98	-1.98
Hampton	MEAC	2.50	2.50	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	2.43	2.43	54.84	54.84	0.24	0.24
Norfolk St.	MEAC	2.43	2.43	41.38	41.38	-0.42	-0.42
Howard	MEAC	2.41	2.41	26.67	26.67	-1.13	-1.13
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	2.34	2.34	17.24	17.24	-1.53	-1.53
George Mason	A10	1.83	1.83	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Grand Canyon	WAC	1.80	1.80	64.52	64.52	0.52	0.52
Binghamton	AE	1.78	1.78	28.57	28.57	-0.76	-0.76
George Washington	A10	1.77	1.77	43.75	43.75	-0.22	-0.22
South Florida	Amer	1.75	1.75	32.26	32.26	-0.62	-0.62
Cal St. Northridge	BW	1.72	1.72	11.11	11.11	-1.34	-1.34
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	1.72	1.72	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
Navy	Pat	1.72	1.72	60.00	60.00	0.34	0.34
West Virginia	B12	1.72	1.72	69.70	69.70	0.68	0.68
Manhattan	MAAC	1.69	1.69	43.33	43.33	-0.23	-0.23
Towson	CAA	1.69	1.69	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
UMBC	AE	0.19	0.19	67.74	67.74	0.07	0.07
William & Mary	CAA	0.19	0.19	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
East Carolina	Amer	0.19	0.19	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Duquesne	A10	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.18	0.18	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.16	0.16	25.00	25.00	-0.08	-0.08
American	Pat	0.16	0.16	20.00	20.00	-0.10	-0.10
Georgetown	BE	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.16	0.16	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
Loyola MD	Pat	0.14	0.14	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Delaware	CAA	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.14	0.14	74.19	74.19	0.07	0.07
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.13	0.13	88.24	88.24	0.10	0.10
Rider	MAAC	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
UCF	Amer	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Baylor	B12	0.13	0.13	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.13	0.13	72.73	72.73	0.06	0.06
Cal Poly	BW	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
College of Charleston	CAA	0.11	0.11	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.11	0.11	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Boston University	Pat	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Southern	SB	0.11	0.11	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Holy Cross	Pat	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.11	93.94	93.94	0.09	0.09
UMKC	WAC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
VCU	A10	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.09	0.09	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Stony Brook	AE	0.09	0.09	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
New Hampshire	AE	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Army	Pat	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bryant	NEC	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.07	-0.07
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Elon	CAA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Wichita St.	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Lehigh	Pat	0.08	0.08	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.08	0.08	29.03	29.03	-0.03	-0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Tulsa	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.08	0.08	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Marist	MAAC	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Connecticut	Amer	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
Utah Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Albany	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Maine	AE	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
UMass Lowell	AE	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.06	0.06	80.65	80.65	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
UNLV	MWC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00